基于局部-地理加权回归的时变谐波阻抗估计
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TM711

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(52277113)


Time-varying harmonic impedance estimation based on locally-geographically weighted regression
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    摘要:

    现有研究中通常假定电力系统谐波阻抗恒定,但不符合真实工况中情况。实际中,系统侧谐波阻抗和背景谐波随运行工况时变,当两谐波电压样本点时间间隔较大时,对应时刻的阻抗和背景谐波的差值可能较大,难以根据时间间隔较远样本点的信息估计关注样本点的阻抗值。由此,文中提出一种基于局部-地理加权回归的时变系统侧谐波阻抗估计方法,首先依据时间间隔大小构建权重矩阵,对与关注样本点时间间隔较大的样本点赋予较小权重,并采用局部加权回归(locally weighted regression,LWR)初步估计系统侧谐波阻抗和背景谐波参考值。然后利用阻抗参考值修正回归方程以降低原回归方程的欠定程度,同时以背景谐波参考值为先验信息,筛选出与关注样本点背景谐波相似的样本点,再基于所筛选样本逐一采用地理加权回归(geographically weighted regression,GWR)求解各点的背景谐波电压和系统侧谐波阻抗。在强背景谐波波动的情况下,文中所提方法能识别阻抗的突变点、估计系统侧谐波阻抗的变化趋势。最后通过仿真分析可知,文中所提方法相对于传统恒定谐波阻抗估计方法,估计准确度提升约40%;相对于现有变阻抗估计方法,估计准确度提升约30%。

    Abstract:

    In existing estimation methods for utility harmonic impedance,it is commonly assumed that the harmonic impedance remains invariant,which often diverges from actual conditions. In practice,both the utility harmonic impedance and background harmonics typically time-varying with operating conditions. For the time interval between two sample points,large numerical value probably gives rise to more conspicuous difference between the impedance and the background harmonics at the corresponding time. Based upon the information of the sample points with a far gap,it is difficult to estimate the impedance value of the sample points of concern. As a consequence,a brand new time-varying utility harmonic impedance estimation method is put forward based on locally-geographically weighted regression. Firstly,a weight matrix is constructed based on time interval,assigning smaller weights to sample points with larger intervals from the points of interest. Locally weighted regression (LWR) is then applied to initially estimate the utility harmonic impedance and background harmonic reference values. Secondly,the impedance reference value is used to modify the regression equation to reduce the under determination of the original regression equation. To screen out the sample points that are similar to the background harmonics of the sample points of concern,the background harmonic reference value is simultaneously utilized as the prior information. On the basis of the screened samples,the background harmonic voltage and the utility harmonic impedance at each point are coped well with by geographically weighted regression (GWR). Under strong background harmonic fluctuations,the recommended method can not only identify abrupt changes in impedance,but also estimate the trend of utility harmonic impedance. Lastly,simulation and case studies demonstrate that the proposed method improves estimation accuracy by approximately 40% compared to traditional constant harmonic impedance estimation methods,and by around 30% compared to existing time-varying impedance estimation methods.

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徐方维,谢佩昂,王川,刘凯,郭凯,樊丽娟.基于局部-地理加权回归的时变谐波阻抗估计[J].电力工程技术,2025,44(1):20-29

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-27
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-24
  • 录用日期:2024-11-25
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-23
  • 出版日期: 2025-01-28
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