基于随机降阶与Kriging优化的随机响应面法概率潮流计算
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TM744

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国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3009800)


Probabilistic power flow calculation based on stochastic response surface method by stochastic reduced order model and Kriging optimizations
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    摘要:

    随着新型电力系统的建设,源-荷不确定性及相互耦合问题更加凸显,电力系统分析需要充分考虑不确定性因素对概率潮流的影响。针对目前传统随机响应面法(stochastic response surface method, SRSM)在概率潮流计算中存在模型精度高度依赖样本数量的问题,文中提出在总样本中使用随机降阶法(stochastic reduced order method, SROM)提取重要样本用于构建计算模型,保证概率潮流计算较好的准确度。为充分考虑源-荷不确定性变量在空间上的相关特征与非线性关系,利用Kriging法对SRSM进一步改进,建立更准确的概率潮流计算模型。此外,采用全局灵敏度分析方法,建立灵敏度指标,计算概率潮流的输出变量对输入随机变量的灵敏度,以量化源-荷不确定性对配电网运行状态变量的影响。最后通过算例仿真,验证了结合SROM与Kriging法优化SRSM,在构建概率潮流计算模型方面的可行性和有效性。

    Abstract:

    With the development of new-type power systems, source-load uncertainty and their mutual coupling have become increasingly prominent. Power system analysis must therefore fully account for the impact of uncertain factors on probabilistic power flow. To address the issue that traditional stochastic response surface method (SRSM) rely heavily on a large number of samples to achieve high modeling accuracy in probabilistic power flow calculations, a sample selection strategy based on the stochastic reduced order method (SROM) is proposed to extract representative samples from the full ensemble for constructing the surrogate model, thereby ensuring high computational accuracy. Furthermore, to better capture the spatial correlation and nonlinear relationships among input variables, the Kriging method is integrated with SRSM to develop an enhanced probabilistic power flow model. In addition, the global sensitivity analysis method is used to establish the sensitivity indices, calculate the sensitivity of the output variable of the probabilistic power flow to the input random variables, and quantify the impact on the operation state variables of the distribution network. Finally, numerical simulations demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed SROM-Kriging enhanced SRSM framework for accurate and efficient probabilistic power flow modeling.

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李龙威,刘青,马玉涛,刘运锋.基于随机降阶与Kriging优化的随机响应面法概率潮流计算[J].电力工程技术,2026,45(6):136-144,153. LI Longwei, LIU Qing, MA Yutao, LIU Yunfeng. Probabilistic power flow calculation based on stochastic response surface method by stochastic reduced order model and Kriging optimizations[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology,2026,45(6):136-144,153.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-04
  • 出版日期: 2026-06-28
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