基于改进累积前景理论的电动运营车充电决策模型
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TM73

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湖北省重点研发计划资助项目“新能源汽车动力电池安全监测大数据分析平台中试研究”(2021BGD013)


Decision-making model for charging of operational EVs based on adapted cumulated prospect theory
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the Key Research and Development Plan of Hubei Province

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    摘要:

    为准确描述电动运营车车主的非理性充电决策行为,文中建立了基于改进累积前景理论的电动运营车充电决策模型。首先,综合考虑到达时间、剩余电量和心理安全电量等因素,构建电动运营车车主在不同峰谷电价下的充电需求模型。其次,针对运营车车主对到达时间和剩余电量的心理感知差异,建立考虑风险偏好的改进累积前景理论异质参考点模型。最后,以运营车累积前景收益为评价指标,对充电决策进行评估。对武汉市电动运营车充电行为进行仿真分析,结果表明,在心理安全电量一定的前提下,心理感知价值较高的车主会提前充电,而心理感知价值较低的车主则倾向于延后充电。文中模型将风险偏好与心理感知价值相结合,可以更准确地反映运营车车主的非理性决策行为。

    Abstract:

    To accurately describe operational electric vehicle (EV) drivers' irrational charging decision-making behaviors,a decision-making model for charging of operational EVs based on adapted cumulated prospect theory (ACPT) is established. Firstly,considering factors including arriving time,battery power remaining and psychological safety electricity,the charging demand models according to different mixes of peak and valley electricity tariffs is constructed. Then,a variable heterogeneous reference point model for the risk-preference-based ACTP is proposed with consideration of drivers' differences in psychological perception of arriving time and battery power remaining. Finally,the charging decision is evaluated based on the cumulative prospect values of the operational EV. Simulations are implemented and the results show that under the premise of a psychologically safe power level,owners with weaker psychologically perceived value will charge in advance instead of delaying charging. By combining risk preference and psychologically perceived value,the charging decision-making model proposed by this paper can explain irrational decision-making behaviours of operational EV drivers more accurately.

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冯万璐,权轶,付波,赵楠,李超顺,陆军军.基于改进累积前景理论的电动运营车充电决策模型[J].电力工程技术,2023,42(2):170-179

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-13
  • 最后修改日期:2022-11-19
  • 录用日期:2022-06-06
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-22
  • 出版日期: 2023-03-28
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