Analyzing the development trend of the scale of new energy vehicles is of great significance to the government regulation,the development direction of vehicle enterprises and the decision-making of the energy department. A new energy vehicle scale prediction method with nonlinear residuals is proposed in this paper. Firstly,the interval prediction method is used to study the uncertainty of economic policy. Secondly,considering the residual of scale prediction,the combined prediction model and support vector regression (SVR) model are used to predict the linear component and nonlinear residual respectively. Finally,the range of new energy vehicles scale in the future is obtained by taking the scale of national new energy vehicles as an example. By comparing different prediction methods,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified,and the impact of different policy factors on the scale evolution of new energy vehicles is analyzed. The proposed method provides a corresponding reference for later charging facilities and other related planning.