基于解析法的电-热互联综合能源系统概率潮流计算
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TM711

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国家电网有限公司科技项目"储能在岸电系统中规划配置与协调运行关键技术研究与应用"(5210D0180006)

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    摘要:

    综合能源系统包含了大量的不确定因素,因此需要考虑综合能源系统在不确定环境下的运行状态。文中基于解析法和近似法,提出一种辐射状供热网络概率潮流快速计算方法。首先通过正态分布函数的数字特征得到管道流量的均值与方差,然后利用连续型随机变量的性质得到了节点温度的均值与方差,当求得热电联产机组热出力概率分布后可得机组电出力概率分布,最后求得电网各状态变量的概率分布。文中方法不需要迭代即可计算出稳态潮流与概率潮流,且不存在收敛性问题。该方法能在保证计算精度的同时,极大地提高计算速度,可为综合能源系统的不确定性分析和风险评估提供参考。

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Probability power flow calculation for electric-thermal interconnected integrated energy system based on analytical method
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    Abstract:

    The integrated energy system contains a large number of uncertain factors,so it is necessary to consider the operating state of the integrated energy system in an uncertain environment. Based on the analytical method and the approximate method,a rapid calculation method for the probability power flow of a radial heating network is proposed in this paper. Firstly,the mean and variance of the mass flow rate within a pipe are obtained through the digital characteristics of the normal distribution function. Then,the mean and variance of the node temperature are calculated by the properties of continuous random variables. When the probability distribution of the heat output of the combined heating and power (CHP) unit is calculated,the probability distribution of the electric output of the unit is obtained. Finally the probability distribution of each state variable of the power system is calculated. The method proposed in this paper is able to calculate steady state power flow and probability power flow without iteration,and there is no convergence problem. The method greatly improves the calculation speed while ensuring the calculation accuracy,which provides a reference for the uncertainty analysis and risk assessment of the integrated energy system.

引用本文

李红,王文学,伏祥运,何维祥,王炜,袁斌,王舒捷.基于解析法的电-热互联综合能源系统概率潮流计算[J].电力工程技术,2021,40(5):151-157

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-28
  • 最后修改日期:2021-06-03
  • 录用日期:2021-06-01
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-30
  • 出版日期: 2021-09-28