基于蒙特卡洛法的用电信息采集系统可靠性评估模型
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TM933

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(51607061);国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(5216A018000N)


Reliability evaluation model of electricity information acquisition terminal based on Monte Carlo method
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SGJS0000YXJS1801124

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    摘要:

    采集终端的可靠性是用电信息采集系统安全运行的关键。文中建立了用电信息采集系统可靠性评估模型,包括采集终端的停运模型、多维特征因子关联失效判定模型以及风险评估方法。分别采用序贯蒙特卡洛法与非序贯蒙特卡洛法对算例进行风险评估,通过对二者的评估结果进行对比分析,序贯蒙特卡洛法因其采用时间抽样技术,可以在时间轴上对采集系统进行仿真,更适合用电采集系统的风险评估。同时,采用多维特征因子关联模型来判断用电信息采集系统是否失效,对用电信息采集系统的风险指标与多维特征因子关联模型中的阈值之间的关系进行了研究,获得了二者之间的关系曲线,通过实际算例分析可知,阈值的最优取值是曲线中的拐点。

    Abstract:

    The reliability of acquisition terminal is crucial for the safe operation of electricity information acquisition system. In this paper, the reliability evaluation model of the electricity information collection system is established, including the outage model of the acquisition terminal, the multi-dimensional feature factor association failure determination model and the risk assessment method. Sequential Monte Carlo method and non-sequential Monte Carlo method are used to evaluate the risk of the instance, and experimental results demonstrate that sequential Monte Carlo method is more suitable for the risk assessment of electricity acquisition system, since it adopts time sampling technology and can simulate the acquisition system on the time axis. Furthermore, multi-dimensional feature factor correlation model is adopted to judge whether the electricity information acquisition system is invalid and the relationship between the risk index of the electricity information acquisition system and the threshold value in the multi-dimensional characteristic factor correlation model is studied. Then the relationship curve between the risk index and the threshold value is obtained. It can be concluded from the instance that the optimal value of the threshold value is the inflection point in the curve.

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王进,钟啸,冯隆基,陈霄,林梓圻,孙秋芹.基于蒙特卡洛法的用电信息采集系统可靠性评估模型[J].电力工程技术,2020,39(3):173-179

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-20
  • 最后修改日期:2019-12-29
  • 录用日期:2019-10-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-06-08
  • 出版日期: 2020-05-28
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