As the strategy of electric energy substitution continues to advance,the scale of electric energy substitution will continue to expand,and it will have a great impact on the constitution of the medium and long term power load.The existing medium and long term load forecasting method has not fully considered the electric energy substitution,and it is necessary to carry out a separate analysis.The important impact of the policy on the future development of electric energy substitution is analyzed,and the calculation method of electric energy substitution is given.On the basis of above,based on the Logistic model,the total amount of the terminal energy consumption and the proportion of the electricity in the terminal energy consumption are predicted respectively.In the process of forecasting,the existing research results are fully integrated and the credibility of the forecast results is improved.Finally,the forecast result of electric energy substitution can be obtained.This model can be used as a supplement to traditional medium and long term load forecasting and to guide future power,grid and associated energy planning.