文章摘要
基于蒙特卡洛法的用电信息采集终端可靠性评估模型
Reliability Evaluation Model of Electricity Information Acquisition Terminal Based on Monte Carlo Method
投稿时间:2019-07-11  修订日期:2019-11-29
DOI:
中文关键词: 用电信息采集系统  可靠性评估  蒙特卡洛法  多维特征因子关联模型
英文关键词: electricity information acquisition system  reliability evaluation  Monte Carlo method  multidimensional feature factor model
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
作者单位E-mail
王进 国网江苏省电力有限公司 61238577@qq.com 
钟啸 湖南大学电气与信息工程学院  
冯隆基 国网江苏省电力有限公司南京供电分公司  
陈霄 国网江苏省电力有限公司  
林梓圻 湖南大学电气与信息工程学院  
孙秋芹 湖南大学电气与信息工程学院 sunqq@hnu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      采集终端的可靠性是用电信息采集系统安全运行的关键。本文建立了用电信息采集系统可靠性评估模型,包括采集终端的停运模型、多维特征因子关联失效判定模型以及风险评估方法。分别采用序贯蒙特卡洛法与非序贯蒙特卡洛法对算例进行风险评估,通过对二者的评估结果进行对比分析,序贯蒙特卡洛法因其是采用时间抽样技术,可以在时间轴上对采集系统进行仿真,更适合用电采集系统的风险评估。同时,采用多维特征因子关联模型来判断用电信息采集系统是否失效,对用电信息采集系统的风险指标与多维特征因子关联模型中的阈值E之间的关系进行了研究,获得了二者之间的关系曲线,通过对实际算例分析可知,阈值E的最优取值是曲线中的拐点。
英文摘要:
      The reliability of acquisition terminal is the key to the safe operation of electricity information acquisition system. This paper has established the reliability evaluation model of the electricity information acquisition system, including the outage model of acquisition terminals and multidimensional feature factor association failure determination model. The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the calculation example, and through the comparison and analysis of the evaluation results with the enumeration method, it can be concluded that the Monte Carlo method is more suitable for the reliability evaluation of the electrical acquisition system. At the same time, the relationship between the risk index of the electricity information acquisition system and the threshold value in the multi-dimensional characteristic factor correlation model is studied, and the relationship curve between the risk index and the threshold value is obtained. It can be concluded that the optimal value of the threshold value is the inflection point in the curve.
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