文章摘要
电网山火灾害特征及风险预警技术
Characteristics and risk warning technology of wildfire disaster in power grid
投稿时间:2019-09-16  修订日期:2020-01-13
DOI:
中文关键词: 广东电网  山火热点  线路跳闸  山火预警
英文关键词: Guangdong power grid  Hot spot of wildfire  Line tripping  Early warning of wild fire
基金项目:南方电网公司科技项目(GDKJXM20173024);国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(J2019013)
作者单位E-mail
周恩泽 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 ljzhang@nju.edu.cn 
胡思雨 南京大学  
张录军 南京大学 whuazhao@yeah.net 
魏瑞增 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院  
王华曌 南京大学  
杨凡   
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中文摘要:
      为了有效预报山火发生导致的大面积电网线路跳闸停电事故,本文利用2008-2017年广东电网山火点数、过火面积和主网跳闸频次数据,研究了该省电网山火灾害年际变化趋势并提出了一种基于偏最小二乘法(Partial-least-square, PLS)的电网山火风险预警模型。研究发现粤东和粤北地区为山火敏感易发地带,且其架空线路覆盖区内山火发生有明显增加趋势。另外,利用历史气象数据,植被数据和地形数据,采用PLS挑选主要的山火预报影响因子,结合应用统计学原理建立了一种优化的电网山火风险预警模型。通过广东电网实际运行山火跳闸案例测试,表明该模拟能准确预测电网山火发生的时间和地点。
英文摘要:
      In order to effectively forecast the large area power grid line trip blackout caused by mountain fire, the spa-tial-temporal characteristics of fire hazards in Guangdong Power Grid Mountains are studied by using the data of the number of fire spots, the area of overfire and the tripping frequency of the main network from 2008 to 2017. A model of optimized risk early warning system based on the partial least squares (PLS) is proposed. It is found that the East and north of Guangdong are sensitive to mountain fires, and the occurrence of mountain fires in the overhead line coverage area has an obvious increasing trend. In addition, reference to historical meteorological data, vegetation data and topographic data, the PLS method is used to select the main influencing factors of mountain fire prediction, and an optimized risk early warning model of mountain fire in power grid is proposed based on the principle of statistics. The validity and practicability of this method are verified by the case test of mountain fire trip in Guangdong power grid.
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